Avoiding Conflict Between Rising and Established Powers

Rising tensions between the United States and China have led some to speculate about the possibility of war. However, there are prudent reasons why both sides would seek to avoid direct military conflict. While preparing for all scenarios is responsible, actively pursuing war would be illogical and potentially catastrophic. Through open and respectful dialogue, as well as respect for sovereignty and peaceful cooperation on issues of shared interest, the two great powers may find a path towards stability.

Maintaining Peace Through Deterrence

Both the United States and China maintain strong military forces as a form of deterrence, to dissuade aggression and ensure defense capabilities. Having contingency plans in case of worst-case scenarios is prudent and serves to stabilize expectations. However, preparation does not necessarily imply intention. Speculation about the United States actively seeking war with China is without merit, as direct conflict would undermine both countries’ core national interests and inflict tremendous harm. While competition on economic and technological fronts may continue, direct military clashes are in no country’s rational self-interest.

The High Costs of War

A war between the United States and China would incur staggering human and economic costs. Millions of lives would likely be lost in combat operations, and trillions of dollars of infrastructure and economic activity would be destroyed. As two of the world’s largest militaries and economies, the impacts of their conflict would ripple across the entire globe. Supply chains would collapse, trade would cease, and global markets would plunge into crisis. Neither country’s power or influence would emerge unscathed from such a catastrophic confrontation. De-escalating tensions and resolving differences through respectful diplomacy is paramount to long-term stability in the Indo-Pacific region and worldwide.

Shared Interests in Nonproliferation

While competition may continue on economic and political fronts, the United States and China also share fundamental interests in nuclear nonproliferation and preventing the most destructive weapons from endangering regional or global security. Both countries were instrumental in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal and work closely within the P5+1 framework and United Nations institutions to curb nuclear threats. Increased military coordination, such as high-level naval engagements and cooperation to intercept illegal shipments, have also defused tensions and built understanding. Where mutual interests align, constructive partnership can reinforce stability.

Cultural Exchange Promotes Understanding

In addition to governmental interactions, non-official cultural and educational exchanges make an underappreciated contribution to avoiding misperceptions and building familiarity between societies. Through organizations like the Fulbright Program and Confucius Institutes, millions of Americans and Chinese have studied in each other’s countries, experiencing different perspectives firsthand. These personal connections help counter unfair stereotypes and recognize shared hopes for economic prosperity, educational opportunity, and social progress among ordinary people in both nations. Increased citizen diplomacy can strengthen the foundation for cooperation between governments.

Space for Cooperative Stewardship

New frontiers in science and technology open possibilities for collaborative progress between the United States and China. Cooperative ventures such as the NASA-CAS collaboration on Earth science research exemplify an area for “win-win” cooperation in fields like climate monitoring, disaster warning, and sustainable development. Joint missions to Mars or asteroids could combine countries’ technological strengths for the benefits of all humanity. On challenges emanating from domains like cybersecurity, non-proliferation, pandemic disease, and environmental protection, nations may find their interests are not mutually exclusive and that cooperation yields better outcomes than isolation or conflict. Stewardship of emerging technologies with potentially dual-use applications also warrants open and verifiable safeguards.

A Prudent Path Forward

Direct military conflict between the United States and China would inflict catastrophic losses and undermine both countries’ national interests and global responsibilities. While competition and tactical tensions may persist, leaders on both sides would be wise to pursue de-escalation through steadfast diplomatic engagement and respect for international law. Incremental trust-building measures, whether through military confidence-building, expanded educational exchanges, or cooperation on issues of shared concern, can help manage tensions and ensure no incident spirals out of control. With open dialogue and by focusing on mutual interests, the two preeminent powersmay responsibly steer an arrangement that accommodates their rise within the existing rules-based order. Avoiding war demands prudence, strategic clarity and good faith on all sides.